© Simply 3 Capital
© Simply 3 Capital
Annie Duke is a retired professional poker player, author, and speaker who is known for her expertise in decision-making and risk management. She has won numerous poker tournaments, including the World Series of Poker, and was once ranked as the leading female money winner in the history of the game.
Thinking in Bets is a book written by Annie Duke that focuses on decision making in uncertain situations.
The book emphasizes the importance of acknowledging uncertainty and making decisions based on probabilities rather than absolute certainty.
Duke argues that humans tend to have biases that cloud their judgement, and that becoming more aware of these biases can help people make better decisions.
One of the key concepts in the book is "resulting," which is the tendency to judge decisions based solely on their outcomes rather than the quality of the decision-making process.
Duke also emphasizes the importance of separating decision quality from outcome quality and recognizing that even good decisions can have bad outcomes.
The book discusses the idea of "hindsight bias," which is the tendency to believe that events were more predictable after they have occurred.
Another important concept is "mental accounting," which refers to the way people categorize and evaluate risks and rewards in different contexts.
Duke argues that people should focus on making better decisions rather than always trying to be right.
She also emphasizes the importance of humility and being willing to admit when one's beliefs or assumptions are wrong.
The book discusses the importance of feedback and how it can help people improve their decision making.
Duke argues that people should strive to be more open-minded and curious, and be willing to consider alternative viewpoints.
The book also touches on the importance of emotional control and how it can impact decision making.
Overall, Thinking in Bets provides a framework for making better decisions in uncertain situations by acknowledging the limits of human knowledge and understanding the role of probability and uncertainty in decision making.
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